Price Performance Summary

Week One Oil Price Movements

Early Period

At the beginning of the first week, Israel and Iran engaged in their first large-scale military confrontation since the ceasefire established in April. Iran launched missile strikes against Israel, and Israel subsequently carried out retaliatory attacks on military targets inside Iran. These developments heightened market concerns regarding potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, causing oil prices to surge by more than 5% intraday.

However, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations between the United States and Iran were still ongoing and that both sides had an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement. In addition, the market generally believed that the conflict had not yet directly affected actual crude oil supplies. Consequently, the initial gains in oil prices gradually moderated.

On the same day, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day starting in July. However, market participants remained skeptical regarding the group's ability to fully implement the planned increase, limiting the announcement’s ability to suppress oil prices.

Mid-Period

Subsequently, the U.S. Secretary of Energy stated that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz was gradually recovering. The market interpreted this as evidence that supply disruption risks were beginning to ease, leading to a decline in oil prices.

However, actual shipping data indicated that traffic volumes through the Strait remained far below pre-conflict levels, suggesting that market participants were primarily trading expectations of future supply normalization rather than actual improvements in supply conditions.

On June 10, after a U.S. Apache helicopter was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, military tensions between the United States and Iran escalated once again. President Trump publicly warned that Iran would face consequences for delaying negotiations and authorized retaliatory military action by U.S. forces. These developments temporarily pushed oil prices higher.

Late Period

Later in the week, President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned new round of military strikes against Iran and revealed that the United States and several Middle Eastern countries were working on a framework agreement to end the conflict.

Market expectations for de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz increased rapidly, causing Brent and WTI crude oil prices to decline by 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively.

Although the EIA reported a substantial drawdown of 7.2 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories—far exceeding market expectations—and some vessels successfully transited the Strait, these bullish supply signals were largely overshadowed by geopolitical developments.

On June 12, Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that the United States and Iran had never been closer to reaching a Memorandum of Understanding. This further strengthened market expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen, triggering another intraday decline in oil prices.

Week Two Oil Price Movements

Early Period

At the beginning of the second week, President Trump announced that the United States and Iran had reached a Memorandum of Understanding.

The market interpreted the agreement as a significant reduction in the risk of Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Investors expected that once the Strait of Hormuz reopened, global energy supplies would gradually normalize.

As geopolitical risk premiums rapidly evaporated, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil plunged by 4.8% and 4.9%, respectively, both falling to three-month lows.

Mid-Period

Reports subsequently emerged indicating that the United States would immediately relax restrictions on Iranian oil exports following the signing of the memorandum.

On June 18, the United States and Iran completed the signing of a temporary framework agreement electronically ahead of schedule. The agreement included provisions covering a ceasefire, the restoration of maritime transportation, and the gradual removal of certain sanctions.

The market viewed these developments as significantly reducing the risk of Middle Eastern supply disruptions, causing oil prices to decline by more than 5% once again.

However, during the G7 Summit, President Trump emphasized that the Memorandum of Understanding had not yet become a final agreement and warned that military action could resume if Iran failed to fulfill its commitments. At the same time, hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continued.

Meanwhile, the continued decline in U.S. crude oil inventories provided some support to the market, contributing to a technical rebound after two consecutive days of sharp declines.

Nevertheless, the IEA’s inaugural 2027 Oil Market Outlook indicated that future global oil supply growth could substantially exceed demand growth. Concerns regarding potential oversupply limited the upside potential for oil prices.

Late Period

During the latter part of the week, market attention shifted toward the implementation of the agreement.

Several positive developments emerged, including the passage of some oil tankers and LNG carriers through the Strait of Hormuz, Kuwait’s announcement of higher production, and the gradual resumption of exports from previously stranded crude oil cargoes.

However, because much of the positive news had already been priced into the market, oil prices did not experience another significant decline.

Instead, investors began focusing on practical challenges, including maritime security, mine-clearing operations, insurance arrangements, and residual political risks.

On June 19, follow-up negotiations between the United States and Iran that had been scheduled to take place in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, were postponed due to logistical issues.

In addition, market concerns increased after reports suggested that Iran was considering permit and insurance requirements for vessels transiting the Strait, while Israel continued conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. These developments raised doubts about the durability of the peace process.

As a result, oil prices experienced a technical rebound. Brent crude oil rose back above the US$80 per barrel level, while WTI crude oil also moved higher accordingly.

Agency Monthly Reports:

This Month's 3 Agency Supply and Demand Forecasts:

EIA

• According to the EIA's June Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will remain largely closed in the short term and expects oil shipments to gradually resume in Q3 2026. However, it may take several months to restore traffic to pre-war levels, and it is not expected to be fully restored until early 2027. Therefore, production disruptions in some Middle Eastern oil-producing countries will continue.
• Middle Eastern crude oil production in May fell by more than 11 million barrels per day compared to pre-conflict levels, leading to a massive depletion of global inventories to fill the supply gap. The EIA forecasts that global oil inventories will decline by 6.3 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and 7.6 million barrels per day in Q3 2026.
• Demand side: Driven by rising fuel prices, supply shortages, and energy-saving measures in various countries, the EIA has revised its 2026 global oil demand forecast down to a decrease of 1.1 million barrels per day per year, a significant downward revision from the May forecast of an increase of 200,000 barrels per day; however, as the supply chain gradually recovers in the second half of 2026, global oil demand is expected to rebound by 2.5 million barrels per day to 105.3 million barrels per day in 2027.
• Regarding prices, although the market anticipated a potential agreement between the US and Iran that would cause Brent crude prices to fall in May, the EIA still forecasts that the average price of Brent crude will remain around $105 per barrel in June and July 2026, given the disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the continued decline in global inventories. As shipping in the Strait gradually resumes and supply recovers, the price is expected to fall to $79 per barrel in 2027. Affected by high oil prices, US refined product prices have been significantly revised upwards compared to pre-conflict forecasts, with diesel and jet fuel prices expected to increase by over 60% and 40% respectively in 2026, and gasoline prices rising by approximately 50%.
• Due to disruptions in crude oil and refined product transportation, the global market's reliance on US energy supplies has increased significantly, driving US net exports of crude oil and petroleum products to a record high of 5.8 million barrels per day in April, and remaining at a similar level in May. Demand for diesel and jet fuel exports saw the most significant growth, with US net exports of crude oil and petroleum products projected to average 4.2 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of approximately 1.4 million barrels per day compared to 2025.

IEA

• Demand side: The IEA forecasts that global oil demand will decrease by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, a further downward revision of 700,000 barrels per day from the previous month's forecast, mainly due to high fuel prices, supply shortages and trade disruptions; however, with the decline in oil prices, the gradual recovery of supply chains and the improvement of the global economic outlook, demand is expected to rebound by 2 million barrels per day to 105.3 million barrels per day in 2027.
• Supply side: Global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 million barrels per day to 102.4 million barrels per day in 2026. Although the interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran is expected to promote the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of restrictions on Iranian oil exports, allowing production and exports in the Gulf region to gradually recover, the speed of supply recovery remains uncertain due to factors such as mine clearance in shipping lanes, infrastructure repair, and cross-border transportation arrangements. Therefore, supply still faces downside risks in the short term.
• Refining: Global refinery crude oil processing volumes are projected to decline by 2 million barrels per day to 82 million barrels per day in 2026, a downward revision of approximately 400,000 barrels per day from last month, primarily due to a significant slowdown in refining activity in Eurasia. While the peace agreement helps improve the supply environment, weak end-user demand and supply chain bottlenecks have not been fully resolved.
• Since the outbreak of the Gulf War, global oil inventories have decreased by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day, with a decrease of 143 million barrels in May alone, equivalent to a daily reduction of 4.6 million barrels. The OECD strategic reserves decreased by 163 million barrels during the same period, falling to their lowest level since the end of 1990, indicating that countries are releasing large amounts of emergency oil reserves to stabilize market supply. Even with a significant drop in demand, inventories continue to be depleted rapidly, reflecting that the market supply gap has not been fully filled, and there is still a risk that global inventories may further decline in the coming months.
• Regarding oil prices, prices gradually declined as the market anticipated an imminent peace agreement between the US and Iran, coupled with weak demand and continued releases of strategic reserves by governments. Investors' demand for safe-haven assets cooled significantly, leading to a rapid unwinding of long positions in crude oil futures, further exacerbating the price decline. From a supply and demand perspective, if the peace agreement is successfully implemented, the global oil market may shift from a supply shortage to a supply surplus in 2027. The IEA estimates that global oil demand will increase by only about 2 million barrels per day in 2027, but supply will increase significantly by about 8 million barrels per day to 110.3 million barrels per day, creating a structural supply surplus of nearly 6 million barrels per day. This will help replenish commercial and strategic inventories that have been significantly depleted due to the war, and may also cause oil prices to fall further.
• Overall, the IEA believes that the global oil market will remain tight in 2026 due to the progress of supply chain recovery and low inventory environment. However, with the gradual recovery of Middle Eastern supply and the continued growth of non-OPEC+ production, the market will shift from supply shortage to supply surplus in 2027, and the global oil market structure is expected to shift from tight to loose.

OPEC

• According to OPEC's June 2026 monthly report, as the market anticipated a gradual de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East, hedge funds and money management institutions reduced their long positions in Brent and WTI crude oil in May. However, the major crude oil futures curves still maintained a deep backwardation, indicating that the supply in the spot market remained tight. The global economic growth forecast remains unchanged from last month's assessment, with global GDP projected to grow by 3.1% and 3.2% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Specifically, the US economic growth forecast remains at 2.2% and 2.0%, China's at 4.6% and 4.5%, and India's at a robust 6.6% and 6.5%, indicating that major global economies still possess robust growth momentum, providing support for future energy demand.
• Demand side: OPEC forecasts global oil demand will increase by 1 million barrels per day in 2026, a downward revision of about 200,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Looking ahead to 2027, the global oil demand growth forecast has been revised upward to 1.7 million barrels per day, an increase of 200,000 barrels per day from the previous month's forecast, reflecting the continued driving force of emerging markets on global oil consumption growth.
• On the supply side, non-OPEC+ (Non-DoC) liquid fuel supply is projected to increase by approximately 600,000 barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from last month's assessment. The main sources of increased production are Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Argentina, with Qatar emerging as a significant new producer. Data shows that OPEC+ member countries' crude oil production decreased by 190,000 barrels per day to 33.13 million barrels per day in May, indicating that supply from some member countries remains affected by policy and geopolitical factors.
• Regarding supply and demand balance, OPEC believes that global economic growth and emerging market demand will continue to support oil consumption growth over the next two years. Although non-OPEC+ supply continues to increase, global commercial inventories remain below historical averages.
• In the refining market, refining margins in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Singapore continued to decline, mainly due to the recovery of refinery operating rates after the spring maintenance season, which increased the supply of refined products and eased the tight market situation; however, in Rotterdam, Europe, refining margins bucked the trend and strengthened due to sudden refinery shutdowns and increased supply risks.
• Regarding inventories, OECD commercial petroleum inventories in April 2026 decreased significantly by 48.4 million barrels from the previous month to 2.748 billion barrels, 6.9 million barrels lower than the same period last year, and 53.7 million barrels lower than the five-year average. While crude oil inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, refined product inventories fell sharply by 52.7 million barrels, indicating that end-consumer and export demand remains strong. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial inventories fell to 60.1 days, 1.3 days lower than the five-year average.

US crude oil data update

The global energy shortage has forced U.S. crude oil inventories to continue to decline rapidly, and refineries to operate at near full capacity in order to meet the demand for refined petroleum products.

According to the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on June 10th and 17th, total U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by approximately 15.53 million barrels to 418.2 million barrels, marking the tenth consecutive week of decline. Meanwhile, refinery crude oil processing increased to 17.2 million barrels per day, and refinery capacity utilization rose from 94.7% to 96.7%, indicating that U.S. refineries have entered the high-capacity operation phase of the summer peak season. Gasoline inventories decreased slightly by approximately 700,000 barrels, while distillate fuel inventories increased by approximately 750,000 barrels.

The main reason for the sharp decline in crude oil inventories was strong refining demand. The Strait of Hormuz remains affected by the US-Iran conflict, forcing European and Asian countries to increase their reliance on US crude oil and refined products, making the US the "last buffer" for global energy supply. Meanwhile, US refiners saw diesel and jet fuel crack spreads remain high, thus actively increasing their operating rates. Secondly, imports declined. EIA data showed that crude oil imports fell to approximately 5.1 million barrels per day that week. Due to the incomplete recovery of the Middle East supply chain, global crude oil logistics remained disrupted, reducing the amount of imported crude oil received by the US, further accelerating the inventory decline. Even though gasoline demand was not as strong as expected, overall petroleum product demand still reached approximately 20.6 million barrels per day, resulting in a larger-than-expected decline in commercial crude oil inventories. Regarding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the US used it extensively during the war. It declined by nearly 17 million barrels in two weeks, bringing the US SPR to approximately 340.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983. The government's continued release of reserve oil to suppress fuel prices reflects the still very tight state of the energy market.

Regarding gasoline inventories, U.S. refineries actively stocked up ahead of the peak driving season, increasing gasoline production to approximately 10.1 million barrels per day. While demand increased by 618,000 barrels per day to 9.21 million barrels per day during the summer driving season, high oil prices suppressed some end-user demand, resulting in only a slight decrease in gasoline inventories. In contrast, driven by high cracking margins, refineries increased diesel and jet fuel production, leading to a brief and slight rebound in distillate fuel inventories, which remained at relatively low levels, indicating that global demand for diesel and jet fuel remains very strong.

On the supply side, Baker Hughes added 2 drilling rigs to its fleet, bringing the total to 433. This indicates that while US drilling activity has slightly rebounded, it remains quite restrained in the face of high oil prices. The company's operating strategy continues to prioritize capital discipline and shareholder returns, rather than maximizing production. Unless high oil prices persist for several quarters, a large-scale production surge similar to that of 2017-2019 is unlikely.

Overall, the data from the past two weeks reflects that the US crude oil market is still in a state of "high utilization rate and low inventory". The rate of decline in crude oil inventory is much faster than the rate of increase in new supply, indicating that the global energy market will remain tight in the short term due to the combined effects of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the peak summer demand season.

Important News and Current Events

The United States and Iran reached an agreement on a roadmap for a final peace agreement within 60 days.

After months of mediation by Pakistan, Qatar, and other parties, the US-Iran conflict took a major turn in mid-June. On June 18, US President Trump and Iranian President Pezesikorn signed a preliminary ceasefire agreement, dubbed the "Islamabad Memorandum" by Iranian media, via electronic means, with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif serving as the main mediator to promote its implementation.

According to the publicly available draft, the core of the agreement includes:

1. The United States, Iran, and their relevant allies shall immediately and permanently cease all military operations on all fronts, refrain from waging war or using force against each other, and guarantee the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon.
2. The United States and Iran pledged to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.
3. The United States and Iran pledged to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days, with the possibility of an extension if both sides agree.
4. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States will immediately lift its naval blockade against Iran and fully restore traffic within 30 days; and pledges to withdraw its troops from the surrounding area within 30 days of the signing of the final agreement.
5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, Iran will ensure the safe and free passage of merchant ships between the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman for 60 days. Considering the time required for Iran to clear technical and military obstacles and conduct mine clearance, passage must be formally restored within 30 days, and future strait management mechanisms must be negotiated with regional countries.
6. The United States pledged to work with regional partners to develop a clear and mutually agreed-upon plan, providing at least $300 billion for Iran’s reconstruction and economic development, and to establish an implementation mechanism for the plan within 60 days. The United States will grant all necessary licenses, waivers, and approvals for the relevant financial transactions.
7. The United States pledged to end all types of sanctions against Iran in accordance with the timetable agreed in the final agreement, including resolutions of the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, as well as all major and minor sanctions unilaterally imposed by the United States.
8. Iran reiterated that it will never seek or develop nuclear weapons. The United States and Iran have agreed that the disposal of enriched uranium and all other nuclear-related matters agreed upon by both parties will be carried out according to the timetable set forth in Article VII, with a minimum approach of in-situ dilution under IAEA supervision. Both parties also agreed that discussions on Iran's uranium enrichment activities and other nuclear-related matters will commence only after a final agreement establishes a mutually acceptable framework. The final agreement will affirm the contents of this clause.
9. Iran and the United States agreed to maintain the status quo until a final agreement is reached: Iran will maintain the status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or increase its military presence in the region.
10. The United States commits to providing sanctions waivers for Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, and related financial, insurance, and transportation services from the date of signing of this Memorandum of Understanding until the date of lifting of sanctions.
11. The United States pledged that, in light of progress in negotiations for a final agreement, it would gradually release frozen funds in Iran and issue relevant licenses to allow Iran to freely use its assets.
12. Iran and the United States agreed to establish an implementation mechanism to monitor the smooth implementation of the final agreement and its future fulfillment.
13. After the ceasefire, lifting of blockade, resumption of shipping, oil exports and asset unfreezing measures are implemented, the two sides will then begin final negotiations on the remaining terms.
14. The final agreement will be endorsed by a binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council.

The core points are: an immediate ceasefire, a gradual lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days, the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a reduction in US military deployments in the region, partial lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and the commencement of final negotiations on the nuclear issue within 60 days, while also gradually unfreezing some Iranian overseas assets. Overall, this memorandum is a crisis management and ceasefire framework, rather than a permanent peace agreement. Its main purpose is to first halt military conflict, restore energy supply chain operations, and create political space for subsequent nuclear negotiations.

Following the ceasefire framework agreement, the US and Iran held their first round of formal talks on June 21 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. The US delegation was led by Vice President Vance, while the Iranian delegation included Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi, among other high-ranking officials. The talks focused on Iran's nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection mechanism, sanctions relief arrangements, the release of frozen assets, and future shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides stated that initial progress had been made, but friction arose due to the US's hardline stance on Iran's nuclear activities, reflecting the still fragile foundation of mutual trust. According to multiple media reports, the US hopes Iran will agree to renewed international inspections as a condition for further sanctions relief and the release of funds, while Iran demands the normalization of oil exports and greater economic benefits.

The biggest differences between the two sides remain centered on the nuclear issue and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States demands restrictions on Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities, the disposal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, and the restoration of a full international monitoring mechanism; Iran, on the other hand, hopes to retain some rights to civilian nuclear development and demands a clear timeline for the lifting of sanctions. Furthermore, although the agreement requires the Strait of Hormuz to gradually return to pre-war navigation levels, Iran has indicated that it will retain a certain degree of oversight and control in the future. On the other hand, Israel is not a signatory to the agreement and continues to launch military operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, posing additional geopolitical risks to the ceasefire framework and becoming a significant uncertainty factor attracting market attention.

Commentary: For the global energy market, this ceasefire agreement marks the beginning of an easing of the biggest supply risk since the conflict erupted at the end of February. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil supply, briefly pushing Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel. With the ceasefire agreement and rising expectations of the Strait's reopening, the market quickly removed the geopolitical risk premium, with Brent crude falling from its high to around $80 per barrel, and WTI also dropping to the mid-to-late $70 range. Market risk sentiment improved simultaneously, with US stocks and risk assets rebounding significantly, reflecting investors' rising expectations for a recovery in global energy supply. However, even if the ceasefire agreement is maintained, supply recovery will still take time. Due to ongoing mine clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, and the need to restart some ports, storage facilities, and logistics systems, it may take months or even longer for Iranian crude oil exports and Gulf oil-producing countries to return to pre-war levels. Therefore, although the risk of the most extreme supply disruptions has decreased significantly, whether the nuclear negotiations can achieve a breakthrough in the next 60 days, the progress of sanctions lifting, the IAEA inspection arrangements, and whether the conflict between Israel and Iranian proxies will escalate again will still determine whether the ceasefire framework can ultimately be transformed into a binding permanent peace agreement, and will continue to dominate the global crude oil market trend in the second half of the year.

Conclusion

Summary of Monthly Reports from Three Major Institutions

In their latest monthly reports, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC all projected a significant downward revision in global oil demand forecasts for 2026 due to high oil prices, supply shortages, and trade disruptions. Both the EIA and IEA believe the impact of the Middle East conflict on supply chains will continue into the second half of 2026, and have simultaneously lowered their 2026 demand growth forecasts to a reduction of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day annually. They also anticipate a continued rapid decline in global inventories. The EIA's assessment of supply risks is the most conservative, suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz may not return to normal operation until early 2027, thus predicting that oil prices will remain high in the short term. The IEA, while maintaining a tight supply environment, believes that with the implementation of the peace agreement, the recovery of Middle East supply, and continued production increases from non-OPEC+ countries, the global oil market may experience a structural oversupply of nearly 6 million barrels per day in 2027, leading to a shift towards a looser market. OPEC remains relatively optimistic, believing that global economic growth and emerging market demand will continue to support oil consumption, and that current commercial inventories are still below historical averages, therefore there is no significant oversupply problem in the market. However, due to the substantial damage caused to the crude oil market by the US-Iran conflict, OPEC has revised its demand growth forecast downward by approximately 200,000 barrels per day for two consecutive months to 1 million barrels per day annually. Overall, the combined views of the three major institutions indicate that the short-term market consensus remains on a tight supply and low inventory environment, but there are significant differences in their views on the supply and demand balance after 2027, reflecting that the market is in a crucial stage of post-war supply reconstruction and long-term supply and demand repricing.

Short-term crude oil market summary

In the short term, the crude oil market remains largely driven by factors including the risk of conflict, the progress of peace agreements, and the speed of supply recovery. Following the signing of the ceasefire memorandum between the US and Iran, the market significantly removed the geopolitical risk premium previously incurred due to the strait blockade, causing international oil prices to fall from their peak to around $75-80 per barrel. However, the resumption of shipping through the strait, the normalization of Iranian oil exports, the lifting of sanctions, and infrastructure repairs will still take time. Furthermore, global commercial and strategic inventories are at relatively low levels, and US crude oil inventories continue to decline rapidly while refinery utilization is near full capacity, indicating that the physical market supply remains tight. Therefore, even though the risk of the most extreme supply disruptions has significantly decreased, oil prices may still remain highly volatile in the coming weeks due to factors such as the progress of nuclear negotiations, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. On the demand side, high oil prices continue to suppress end-user consumption, coupled with low global inventories and support from the summer peak season. It is expected that crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. The market will continue to seek a balance between the expectation of supply recovery brought about by the peace agreement and the tight supply under the low inventory environment. It is expected that a directional breakthrough will not occur until nuclear negotiations make breakthrough progress or the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz returns to the pre-war level.