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2026/3/16
Over the past two weeks, the crude oil market has been driven by supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran conflict, pushing oil prices higher. The three major energy agencies generally agree that the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will create significant supply pressure, yet their supply and demand expectations diverge. OPEC maintains its supply and demand growth forecasts unchanged, the IEA has simultaneously made sharp downward revisions to both demand and supply growth rates, while the EIA expects Brent crude to remain above $95/barrel over the next two months. Crude oil inventories continue to accumulate, but refined product drawdowns have been better than expected, indicating that end-user demand still possesses a degree of resilience. However, the importance of crude inventory data will drop significantly in the short term, and the market will not price it in heavily.
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2026/1/26
Oil prices have been highly volatile over the past two weeks, with fluctuations in the geopolitical risk premium related to Iran dominating price movements. Going forward, whether nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran can reach a consensus—or instead escalate into military confrontation—will remain a key focus for the market. Meanwhile, crude oil and distillate inventories declined more than expected, likely due to temporary production disruptions and demand shifts caused by recent winter storms. Upcoming data releases will be closely watched to determine whether end-user demand is undergoing a directional change.
This month, revisions across the three major agencies’ monthly reports were limited. OPEC maintained its existing supply and demand growth forecasts, while both the EIA and IEA made modest upward revisions to demand and supply growth. However, given the limited adjustment in the overall supply–demand structure, the short-term oil price outlook still lacks a clear directional signal. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories continued to rise in tandem, indicating weak end-user demand momentum. As a result, near-term fundamentals continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices, although geopolitical risks and supply disruptions in certain regions provided intermittent upside support.
2026/1/12
Overall, over the past two weeks, refined product inventories have continued to build, signaling weak end-user demand. However, crude oil inventories declined by more than market expectations, providing support to crude prices. Venezuela’s limited market share means that any potential increase or loss of supply has only a marginal impact on global crude supply expectations. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s extension of its pause on production increases, together with geopolitical risks involving Russia–Ukraine and Iran, has slightly eased concerns over supply growth and contributed to higher oil prices.
2025/12/29
Over the past two weeks, the short-lived uptick in oil prices was mainly driven by a geopolitical risk premium. However, the medium- to long-term outlook is still shaped by structural factors—relatively ample global crude supply (U.S. production staying high, non-OPEC supply growth) and only moderate demand growth—both of which cap upside potential. Absent a major supply disruption or additional OPEC+ tightening, crude is likely to stay range-bound with limited volatility. A sustained rebound would require either a clear improvement in demand or more concrete, persistent signs of supply contraction.
2025/12/15
Adjustments in this month’s reports from the three major agencies were limited. Both the EIA and OPEC largely maintained their existing supply–demand assessments. The IEA, by contrast, further revised demand upward and supply downward, leading to a modest narrowing of the projected supply–demand gap, though not enough to alter the market’s dominant narrative. At the same time, U.S. refined product inventories continued to rise, indicating that end-user demand momentum remains weak. As a result, near-term fundamentals continue to weigh on oil prices, and the oil market overall retains a structurally soft bias.
2025/12/10
Value investing focuses on buying quality stocks at low prices and waiting for the market to recognize their true worth, generating solid returns. The key is not just finding what’s cheap—but what’s valuable. This article outlines common causes of value traps, including operating in declining industries, intensifying competition, poor corporate management, and financial red flags. It also briefly explains how investors can avoid falling into these traps by staying cautious and not being misled by low prices alone.
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2025/12/3
According to regulations, publicly listed companies are required to regularly disclose financial reports. This obligation is not only a matter of information transparency — it also serves as a “health checkup report” that companies present to the market. This article provides a brief overview of the three core financial statements — the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement — outlining their roles and functions. It also highlights how investors can utilize the distinct characteristics of each report to better understand a company’s fundamentals, laying the groundwork for preliminary fundamental analysis.
2025/12/1
Over the past two weeks, geopolitical risk premiums have faded rapidly while seasonal demand failed to firm as expected—both developments weighing on crude prices. Although lower prices are gradually curbing U.S. upstream investment and OPEC+ remains committed to production cuts, the absence of a clear demand catalyst means the market is likely to oscillate around a backdrop of ample supply and moderate consumption, with downside risks still outweighing near-term upside drivers.
2025/11/17
OPEC sharply revised up its 3Q25 supply estimate this month, weakening market risk appetite and reinforcing expectations of a more comfortable supply outlook. Although geopolitical tensions continue to spark short-lived rebounds in crude prices, they have limited ability to alter the medium-term trend of rising supply. Markets will still need to watch how the Russia–Ukraine conflict and Middle East dynamics affect actual exports and shipping flows.
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