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2025/7/14
Over the past two weeks, oil prices edged higher, supported by tightening supply-demand conditions in the spot market. The continued decline in U.S. rig counts has partially offset the supply pressure from OPEC’s expanded production. Going forward, attention should be paid to tariff policy developments and U.S. refined product demand data.
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# Investment Analysis
# fiisual lab
2025/6/30
Over the past two weeks, market trading has centered around the Israel-Iran conflict. Initially, oil prices surged after Iran passed a bill to close the Strait of Hormuz. However, following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the two nations, the geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipated, leading to a sharp 15% drop in oil prices.
2025/6/16
Over the past two weeks, oil prices have surged by approximately 17%, primarily driven by two major catalysts: the warming of China–U.S. trade negotiations and the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the EIA’s latest data showed a significant and unexpected build in refined product inventories, casting doubt on whether the U.S. driving season is truly boosting demand, and raising concerns for oil prices moving forward.
2025/5/5
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices have dropped by approximately 9%. Market confidence was initially shaken by a shift in U.S. trade policy and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Sentiment later recovered following favorable policy signals. Meanwhile, several OPEC+ countries signaled a willingness to increase output, undermining confidence in previous production cut commitments and intensifying concerns over a potential supply glut. WTI prices even briefly fell below their post-pandemic lows. Although geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran provided short-term support, the overall market remains bearish.
2025/4/21
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices have shown high volatility. The imposition of tariffs by the U.S., China, and Europe raised concerns about declining oil demand, pushing prices to recent lows. Subsequently, the U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for multiple countries, temporarily boosting market sentiment and prompting a sharp rebound in oil prices. Prices then rose further, supported by OPEC+’s announcement of compensatory production cuts, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, and positive progress in U.S.-EU trade negotiations.
2025/4/17
Since his second inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump has rolled out a series of tariff measures. As of April 16, 2025, his administration has announced a 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy unveiled last week. However, negotiations with China remain inconclusive, with effective tariffs on certain Chinese imports now totaling up to 245%. The article outlines a comprehensive timeline of Trump’s tariff actions since reentering office, as well as the current international structure of U.S. trade policy. Despite some reversals, Trump’s overall tariff strategy can be broadly categorized into three main segments: North American trade partners, China, and other countries.
# USA
# Taiwan
# China
# News
# Taxation
2025/4/9
On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping new trade policy: starting April 5, the U.S. will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners. Countries deemed to have unfair trade practices will face reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, effective April 9. Taiwan's rate is set at 32%, while China faces a staggering total tariff burden of 104%, including previously implemented levies. This article breaks down the complete tariff schedule, including region-specific rates, product exemptions, and future planned tariffs on key sectors. It also analyzes the global market response, with U.S. stocks tumbling—particularly in the energy sector—and heightened volatility across oil, gold, and other commodities amid escalating trade war fears and rising risk-off sentiment.
# Stocks
# Bonds
2025/4/7
Over the past two weeks, international crude oil prices have fallen by approximately 8–9%. Although the U.S. intensified sanctions on Venezuela and Iran—temporarily increasing supply risks and pushing oil prices upward—these gains were quickly reversed as the U.S. announced substantial tariff hikes. This triggered retaliatory measures from major trading partners, dampening global economic sentiment and weakening oil demand expectations. Simultaneously, OPEC+ announced a significant and unexpected expansion of its production plan, further aggravating the supply-demand imbalance and accelerating the drop in oil prices.
2025/3/24
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices have fluctuated under the combined influence of economic data, geopolitical tensions, and supply-side factors. Weak U.S. economic data has heightened expectations of interest rate cuts, while slower builds in crude inventories have eased supply pressures, offering support to oil prices. Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have contributed to market volatility. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+’s production cut plans have further alleviated concerns over excess supply, ultimately pushing oil prices slightly higher.
2025/3/11
Over the past two weeks, oil prices have dropped to their lowest levels this year due to bearish economic data and OPEC+'s announcement of a scheduled production increase. Although Trump's aggressive sanctions policy led to a slight rebound in prices, policy uncertainty remains high, and the overall market is still shrouded in a bearish sentiment.
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# Fundamental Analysis
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# Chip Analysis
