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2026/5/11
Although the market experienced a rapid correction due to the US-Iran peace talks, ceasefire news, and expectations of shipping resumption, overall oil prices continue to fluctuate near high levels, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to supply disruption risks. Looking at the price trends over the past two weeks, international oil prices have pulled back from their highs, but intraday volatility has been extreme. Market sentiment continues to be repeatedly driven by military conflicts, diplomatic negotiations, and the transit situation in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the latest US EIA data also shows that the global supply gap is rapidly reflecting in the physical market. US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories have seen continuous and significant declines, export demand has noticeably heated up, and global oil inventories are rapidly depleting at a historically rare pace.
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2026/4/27
Recent severe fluctuations in the international crude oil market, driven by geopolitical conflicts, have focused primarily on the risk of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and changes in supply shocks and risk premiums triggered by the progress of US-Iran negotiations. International oil prices surged due to the breakdown of US-Iran talks, the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Although oil prices experienced sharp short-term volatility due to ceasefire expectations and negotiation news, the overall range remains at elevated levels. On the other hand, the IEA and OPEC show clear divergence in their supply and demand outlooks: the former significantly downgraded demand and emphasized the risk of supply chain damage, while the latter maintained robust supply and demand growth expectations. In terms of inventories, the US inventory structure and refining activities also showed a divergent trend of "crude oil inventory builds, with consecutive significant draws in SPR and refined products," further supporting crack spreads and refining margins.
2026/4/13
Following the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and the decision to hold peace talks, the market turned optimistic. Expectations that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen became the main driver for a sharp drop in oil prices. However, the negotiations broke down due to a lack of consensus, raising the risk of further conflict escalation. Under the multiple constraints of blocked shipping, damaged infrastructure, and ongoing military activities, the price center of gravity will likely remain higher than pre-war levels. The latest EIA outlook explicitly points out that shipping disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict have forced regional oil producers to shut in wells and accumulate inventory. The scale of actual supply disruptions remains as high as millions of barrels per day. Consequently, the EIA has downgraded supply and demand growth rates while significantly upgrading its oil price forecasts.
2026/3/30
Short-term oil price fluctuations are driven by shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of US-Iran conflict. However, looking at supply and demand fundamentals, continuous larger-than-expected US crude oil inventory builds, high production levels, and increased refined product supply brought by recovering refinery utilization rates all indicate that there is no structural shortage in the physical market. At the same time, the destocking of gasoline reflects seasonal adjustments rather than a significant expansion of domestic demand, further reinforcing the divergence of strong prices against weak fundamentals.
2026/3/16
Over the past two weeks, the crude oil market has been driven by supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran conflict, pushing oil prices higher. The three major energy agencies generally agree that the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will create significant supply pressure, yet their supply and demand expectations diverge. OPEC maintains its supply and demand growth forecasts unchanged, the IEA has simultaneously made sharp downward revisions to both demand and supply growth rates, while the EIA expects Brent crude to remain above $95/barrel over the next two months. Crude oil inventories continue to accumulate, but refined product drawdowns have been better than expected, indicating that end-user demand still possesses a degree of resilience. However, the importance of crude inventory data will drop significantly in the short term, and the market will not price it in heavily.
2026/1/26
This month, revisions across the three major agencies’ monthly reports were limited. OPEC maintained its existing supply and demand growth forecasts, while both the EIA and IEA made modest upward revisions to demand and supply growth. However, given the limited adjustment in the overall supply–demand structure, the short-term oil price outlook still lacks a clear directional signal. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories continued to rise in tandem, indicating weak end-user demand momentum. As a result, near-term fundamentals continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices, although geopolitical risks and supply disruptions in certain regions provided intermittent upside support.
Oil prices have been highly volatile over the past two weeks, with fluctuations in the geopolitical risk premium related to Iran dominating price movements. Going forward, whether nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran can reach a consensus—or instead escalate into military confrontation—will remain a key focus for the market. Meanwhile, crude oil and distillate inventories declined more than expected, likely due to temporary production disruptions and demand shifts caused by recent winter storms. Upcoming data releases will be closely watched to determine whether end-user demand is undergoing a directional change.
2026/1/12
Overall, over the past two weeks, refined product inventories have continued to build, signaling weak end-user demand. However, crude oil inventories declined by more than market expectations, providing support to crude prices. Venezuela’s limited market share means that any potential increase or loss of supply has only a marginal impact on global crude supply expectations. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s extension of its pause on production increases, together with geopolitical risks involving Russia–Ukraine and Iran, has slightly eased concerns over supply growth and contributed to higher oil prices.
2025/12/29
Over the past two weeks, the short-lived uptick in oil prices was mainly driven by a geopolitical risk premium. However, the medium- to long-term outlook is still shaped by structural factors—relatively ample global crude supply (U.S. production staying high, non-OPEC supply growth) and only moderate demand growth—both of which cap upside potential. Absent a major supply disruption or additional OPEC+ tightening, crude is likely to stay range-bound with limited volatility. A sustained rebound would require either a clear improvement in demand or more concrete, persistent signs of supply contraction.
2025/12/15
Adjustments in this month’s reports from the three major agencies were limited. Both the EIA and OPEC largely maintained their existing supply–demand assessments. The IEA, by contrast, further revised demand upward and supply downward, leading to a modest narrowing of the projected supply–demand gap, though not enough to alter the market’s dominant narrative. At the same time, U.S. refined product inventories continued to rise, indicating that end-user demand momentum remains weak. As a result, near-term fundamentals continue to weigh on oil prices, and the oil market overall retains a structurally soft bias.
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