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2026/1/26
This month, revisions across the three major agencies’ monthly reports were limited. OPEC maintained its existing supply and demand growth forecasts, while both the EIA and IEA made modest upward revisions to demand and supply growth. However, given the limited adjustment in the overall supply–demand structure, the short-term oil price outlook still lacks a clear directional signal. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories continued to rise in tandem, indicating weak end-user demand momentum. As a result, near-term fundamentals continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices, although geopolitical risks and supply disruptions in certain regions provided intermittent upside support.
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2026/1/12
Overall, over the past two weeks, refined product inventories have continued to build, signaling weak end-user demand. However, crude oil inventories declined by more than market expectations, providing support to crude prices. Venezuela’s limited market share means that any potential increase or loss of supply has only a marginal impact on global crude supply expectations. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s extension of its pause on production increases, together with geopolitical risks involving Russia–Ukraine and Iran, has slightly eased concerns over supply growth and contributed to higher oil prices.
2025/12/29
Over the past two weeks, the short-lived uptick in oil prices was mainly driven by a geopolitical risk premium. However, the medium- to long-term outlook is still shaped by structural factors—relatively ample global crude supply (U.S. production staying high, non-OPEC supply growth) and only moderate demand growth—both of which cap upside potential. Absent a major supply disruption or additional OPEC+ tightening, crude is likely to stay range-bound with limited volatility. A sustained rebound would require either a clear improvement in demand or more concrete, persistent signs of supply contraction.
2025/12/15
Adjustments in this month’s reports from the three major agencies were limited. Both the EIA and OPEC largely maintained their existing supply–demand assessments. The IEA, by contrast, further revised demand upward and supply downward, leading to a modest narrowing of the projected supply–demand gap, though not enough to alter the market’s dominant narrative. At the same time, U.S. refined product inventories continued to rise, indicating that end-user demand momentum remains weak. As a result, near-term fundamentals continue to weigh on oil prices, and the oil market overall retains a structurally soft bias.
2025/12/1
Over the past two weeks, geopolitical risk premiums have faded rapidly while seasonal demand failed to firm as expected—both developments weighing on crude prices. Although lower prices are gradually curbing U.S. upstream investment and OPEC+ remains committed to production cuts, the absence of a clear demand catalyst means the market is likely to oscillate around a backdrop of ample supply and moderate consumption, with downside risks still outweighing near-term upside drivers.
2025/11/17
OPEC sharply revised up its 3Q25 supply estimate this month, weakening market risk appetite and reinforcing expectations of a more comfortable supply outlook. Although geopolitical tensions continue to spark short-lived rebounds in crude prices, they have limited ability to alter the medium-term trend of rising supply. Markets will still need to watch how the Russia–Ukraine conflict and Middle East dynamics affect actual exports and shipping flows.
2025/11/3
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices were driven by renewed sanctions on Russia and the latest OPEC meeting. Fundamentally, U.S. inventories continued to draw down, suggesting potential supply tightness if restocking does not accelerate before the peak season. In the near term, markets will closely watch the upcoming monthly reports from the three major energy agencies and updates on geopolitical tensions.
2025/10/20
Over the past two weeks, international oil prices have fluctuated in response to the evolving U.S.–China trade relationship, reflecting market uncertainty. Meanwhile, monthly reports from the three major energy agencies highlighted persistently high global crude inventories, reinforcing concerns about oversupply. However, on-the-ground data shows that fundamental demand remains resilient—U.S. gasoline demand continues to draw down inventories during the high-consumption season, and middle distillates have strengthened due to export redirection after Russian refineries were attacked. In the short term, markets will closely watch U.S.–China trade negotiations and Russia–India energy flows.
2025/9/15
Over the past two weeks, international crude prices were swayed by OPEC+’s modest output hike, geopolitical conflicts, and monthly reports from key agencies. While the three agencies diverged in their supply and demand forecasts, all highlighted that supply pressures remain a major concern. Spot market data shows gasoline demand holding firm, but industrial momentum weakening. In the short run, prices remain hostage to geopolitical risks, with no clear directional trend.
2025/9/1
Recent international crude price movements have been heavily influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions, and U.S. political risks, adding to short-term volatility. From a supply-demand perspective, U.S. crude and gasoline inventories continue to decline, while refinery utilization remains elevated, suggesting resilient demand even toward the end of the driving season. Key factors to watch ahead include Federal Reserve policy decisions and OPEC+ production strategy.
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