Price Trend Summary
| Opening Price (02/24) | Closing Price (03/07) | Price Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 73.76 | 70.36 | -4.61% |
| WTI Crude | 69.80 | 67.04 | -3.95% |
| Dubai Crude | 78.01 | 70.43 (03/06) | N/A |
Over the past two weeks, the international crude oil market has continued to fluctuate downward. In the first week, crude oil prices dropped by about 1%, initially influenced by bearish economic data such as a significant decline in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index. Concerns over the U.S. economic outlook led to a 3% drop in oil prices. However, oil prices rebounded by approximately 2% due to Chevron’s Venezuela license revocation by Trump and an unexpected decrease in crude oil inventories reported by the EIA.
In the second week, the oil market initially declined and then fluctuated, with a weekly loss of about 3%-4%. The downward trend was driven by OPEC+’s announcement to maintain its planned production increase from April, a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories, the resumption of Kurdistan exports in Iraq, and a weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February. As a result, Brent crude temporarily fell below $70. Later in the week, prices rebounded slightly due to an escalation in Russia’s military actions in Ukraine and Trump's threat of sanctions against Russia. Overall, crude oil prices declined by approximately 4% over the two-week period.
Crude Oil Data Update
| 02/28/25 | 02/21/25 | 02/14/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory (Million Barrels) | |||
| Commercial Crude Oil (Excluding SPR) | 433.8 (+3.6) | 430.2 (-2.3) | 432.5 |
| Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) | 395.3 (+0.0) | 395.3 (+0.0) | 395.3 |
| Gasoline | 246.8 (-1.5) | 248.3 (+0.4) | 247.9 |
| Distillate Fuel Oil | 119.2 (-1.3) | 120.5 (+3.9) | 116.6 |
| Production Activity | |||
| Rig Count | 486 (-2) | 488 (+7) | 481 |
| Refinery Utilization (%) | 85.9 (-0.6) | 86.5 (+1.6) | 84.9 |
Over the past two weeks, commercial crude oil inventories increased by a total of 1.3 million barrels, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged.
On the production side, active rig counts increased by five, and refinery utilization rates rose by 1 percentage point to 85.9%. In terms of refined products, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels.
Overall, the rise in commercial crude inventories suggests that market supply remains relatively ample. However, fluctuations in gasoline and distillate fuel inventories indicate some level of demand uncertainty in the short term. Additionally, the increase in rig counts and refinery utilization rates may signal heightened crude oil production activity. It remains to be seen whether U.S. shale producers will adjust their production strategies following OPEC+’s planned production increase.
Global Market Developments
OPEC+ Announces Plan to Proceed with Production Increase
On March 3, OPEC+ announced that it would maintain its scheduled production increase, beginning in April 2025 with an additional 138,000 barrels per day (bpd) and a full restoration of the previously cut 2.2 million bpd by September 2026. Following this decision, international oil prices fell to their lowest point of the year.
Although the increase in OPEC+ supply may lead to a market surplus, the organization stated that "production adjustments will depend on market conditions and may be paused or reversed," highlighting its strategic flexibility. The primary goal is to stabilize oil prices rather than simply lowering them.
With OPEC+ increasing output, oil prices may remain under pressure, particularly if global oil demand growth fails to match the supply expansion. However, geopolitical risks remain a significant market factor, and attention should be paid to the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, global trade disputes, and the response strategies of non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries.
U.S. Imposes Tariffs on Canada and Mexico
Since taking office, Trump’s tariff policies have been a key market focus. Starting March 4, he announced a 25% tariff on goods that do not comply with the USMCA agreement, while goods meeting USMCA requirements will have tariffs delayed until April 4.
In the short term, disruptions to North American supply chains could lead to higher crude oil prices. However, in the medium to long term, high tariffs may slow global economic growth and trigger inflation, potentially suppressing oil demand and exerting downward pressure on prices.
Despite this, given Trump's policy flexibility and Canada and Mexico’s role as key crude oil suppliers to the U.S., the possibility of tariff reversals remains. Market participants should monitor potential retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico, Trump’s potential extension of tariffs to other regions, and whether U.S. refiners can find alternative suppliers.
Conclusion
OPEC+’s production increase will be a major factor contributing to future crude oil supply growth, limiting the potential for oil prices to rise significantly. Additionally, the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the U.S. tariff disputes remain key factors to watch in the near term.
