Sort Newest to Oldest
2025/3/10
In 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) welcomes a new lineup of policymakers, with changes in the rotating voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The policy orientations and economic perspectives of these new voters will significantly influence U.S. monetary policy, interest rate trends, and global financial markets. This article provides an in-depth look at the backgrounds, policy stances, and potential impacts of the new FOMC members in 2025, aiming to help investors and market participants better understand the direction of the Fed’s decision-making. Compared to the outgoing members from the previous year, the 2025 incoming voters show a more divided stance, with fewer neutral members. The addition of two more hawkish members has also led markets to anticipate a slower pace of rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.
# Macroeconomics
# USA
# Federal Reserve
# Macroeconomic Data
2025/2/10
Changes in liquidity are one of the key factors influencing the market. Understanding the flow of funds within the financial system helps identify the underlying drivers of asset price movements. This article explains how to analyze liquidity by examining the balance sheet of the world’s largest liquidity creator—the U.S. Federal Reserve. By tracking changes in monetary policy operations and liquidity supply, we can assess their potential impact on financial markets. From assets to liabilities, the article breaks down key balance sheet components and then use critical indicators to evaluate current market liquidity conditions.
# fiisual lab
# Editor's Pick
2024/12/23
The Sahm Rule is based on changes in the unemployment rate. When the three-month average unemployment rate rises more than 0.5% above the lowest point of the past year, it may signal an economic recession. Historical data shows that this indicator has a 90% accuracy rate. However, since the current increase in the unemployment rate may be driven by a rise in immigrant employment, and the services sector PMI has significantly exceeded expectations, further assessment is needed to determine the future economic outlook.
# Investment
# Employment
2024/10/18
FedWatch is a tool developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to predict the probability of future rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve. It calculates these probabilities based on the prices of "30-day Federal Funds" futures, offering insights into market expectations. The tool provides both short-term and long-term interest rate forecasts and includes the Fed officials’ dot plot to help analyze policy direction. With these features, investors can adjust their strategies in line with market expectations, preparing for potential rate changes in advance.
# Financial Tools
# Beginners Guide
# Financial Lessons
# Central Bank
In this article, we explore how inflation is measured. The impact of inflation varies depending on the nature of goods and consumer demand, causing individuals to experience inflation differently. To standardize measurement, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to track price changes in a basket of goods and services, reflecting inflation trends across a broader economy. Changes in CPI can reveal inflation patterns, helping governments and investors formulate economic policies and financial decisions.
2024/10/17
The article introduces the concept of inflation and its effects. Inflation refers to the sustained rise in prices of goods and services over time, leading to a decline in the purchasing power. This phenomenon not only affects consumers' daily lives but also has a significant impact on overall economic growth. Moderate inflation supports healthy economic development, but excessively high inflation can erode the value of currency. Additionally, inflation directly influences personal financial planning—if investment returns fail to outpace the inflation rate, assets may lose value. Understanding the basics of inflation is fundamental to investment and financial planning.
# Investment Strategy
2023/9/5
The full name of the FED is the Federal Reserve System, which serves as the central banking system of the United States. It was established in 1913 under the Federal Reserve Act, following the financial panic of 1907 to prevent similar crises from occurring. The Fed’s mission centers on three main goals: promoting maximum employment, stabilizing prices, and managing long-term interest rates. The first two goals are known as the "Dual Mandate." For convenience, people often refer to it simply as "the Fed." In this post, we’ll dive deeper into the Fed’s structure, including its Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), to help you gain a full understanding of how the Fed operates!
# Monetary Policy
# Inflation
The Federal Reserve sets "monetary policy" through FOMC meetings to achieve its dual mandate of stability. The well-known actions of raising and lowering interest rates are part of this process, aimed at controlling the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) using various FOMC tools. Traditionally, these tools include Open Market Operations, the Discount Window, and Required Reserve Ratios. However, additional tools have evolved over time such as Quantitative Easing (QE), Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), and the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement (ON RRP). This article will introduce each of these tools in detail, explaining their specific functions and impacts.
In addition to influencing interest rates through monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s reports also frequently have a significant impact on the market. Common reports include the Federal Open Market Committee Statement, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), Beige Book, and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS). There are also more frequently updated reports such as the Balance Sheet (H.4.1) and the Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks (H8). These reports provide diverse insights, allowing for market interpretation from various perspectives and revealing the real thoughts of scholars, experts, and Fed officials on the economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) serves as the central decision-making body of the Federal Reserve System. Members' stances (such as hawkish or dovish) can vary, significantly influencing the direction of interest rates. The FOMC is composed of 12 voting members. During meetings, all regional Fed presidents participate in discussions on the overall economic situation. However, only the 12 voting members cast votes to determine the final outcome of monetary policy decisions.
# GDP
