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2026/1/26
In 2026, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will undergo key leadership changes, including a full rotation of FOMC voting members and a transition of the Chair—developments that will have significant implications for future interest rate policy. The four new rotating voting members are generally hawkish, with broad support for slowing or pausing rate cuts in order to observe subsequent developments in inflation and the labor market. In contrast, potential candidates for the next Fed Chair lean more dovish, arguing that there is still room for further rate cuts. Overall, the 2026 FOMC is expected to feature a structure in which rotating voting members are relatively hawkish, while Governors and potential Chair candidates are more dovish. While markets continue to expect the overall direction of rate cuts to remain intact, the actual pace and magnitude will depend heavily on inflation trends, labor market data, and evolving political factors.
# Macroeconomics
# USA
# Central Bank
# Federal Reserve
# Editor's Pick
2025/12/1
CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) is one of the most significant regional trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region, currently encompassing 12 major member countries and accounting for approximately 13% of global GDP. This article provides a brief overview of CPTPP’s development history, core provisions, and its distinctions from RCEP. It also explains why Taiwan has actively sought to join in recent years. However, Taiwan faces several challenges in the application process, including political pressure from China, meeting the agreement’s high standards, and achieving consensus among existing member states. These factors will significantly impact Taiwan’s prospects for successfully joining CPTPP.
# Taiwan
# China
# Japan
# Manufacturing Industry
2025/7/14
The recently passed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is considered the signature legislative achievement of Donald Trump’s second term. This comprehensive bill integrates tax reform, national defense, border security, social welfare, and energy policy. Key provisions include: extending and expanding TCJA-related tax cuts and investment incentives, significantly increasing defense and border security spending, cutting back on welfare programs such as Medicaid and food assistance, and shifting energy and environmental policy to support fossil fuel development. The bill is projected to boost U.S. real GDP growth to 0.9% in 2026, though its tax cuts and subsidy reductions are expected to intensify social divisions across the country.
# Consumption
2025/3/10
In 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) welcomes a new lineup of policymakers, with changes in the rotating voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The policy orientations and economic perspectives of these new voters will significantly influence U.S. monetary policy, interest rate trends, and global financial markets. This article provides an in-depth look at the backgrounds, policy stances, and potential impacts of the new FOMC members in 2025, aiming to help investors and market participants better understand the direction of the Fed’s decision-making. Compared to the outgoing members from the previous year, the 2025 incoming voters show a more divided stance, with fewer neutral members. The addition of two more hawkish members has also led markets to anticipate a slower pace of rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.
# Macroeconomic Data
2025/2/10
Changes in liquidity are one of the key factors influencing the market. Understanding the flow of funds within the financial system helps identify the underlying drivers of asset price movements. This article explains how to analyze liquidity by examining the balance sheet of the world’s largest liquidity creator—the U.S. Federal Reserve. By tracking changes in monetary policy operations and liquidity supply, we can assess their potential impact on financial markets. From assets to liabilities, the article breaks down key balance sheet components and then use critical indicators to evaluate current market liquidity conditions.
# fiisual lab
2024/12/23
The Sahm Rule is based on changes in the unemployment rate. When the three-month average unemployment rate rises more than 0.5% above the lowest point of the past year, it may signal an economic recession. Historical data shows that this indicator has a 90% accuracy rate. However, since the current increase in the unemployment rate may be driven by a rise in immigrant employment, and the services sector PMI has significantly exceeded expectations, further assessment is needed to determine the future economic outlook.
# Investment
# Employment
2024/10/18
FedWatch is a tool developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to predict the probability of future rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve. It calculates these probabilities based on the prices of "30-day Federal Funds" futures, offering insights into market expectations. The tool provides both short-term and long-term interest rate forecasts and includes the Fed officials’ dot plot to help analyze policy direction. With these features, investors can adjust their strategies in line with market expectations, preparing for potential rate changes in advance.
# Financial Tools
# Beginners Guide
# Financial Lessons
In this article, we explore how inflation is measured. The impact of inflation varies depending on the nature of goods and consumer demand, causing individuals to experience inflation differently. To standardize measurement, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to track price changes in a basket of goods and services, reflecting inflation trends across a broader economy. Changes in CPI can reveal inflation patterns, helping governments and investors formulate economic policies and financial decisions.
2024/10/17
The article introduces the concept of inflation and its effects. Inflation refers to the sustained rise in prices of goods and services over time, leading to a decline in the purchasing power. This phenomenon not only affects consumers' daily lives but also has a significant impact on overall economic growth. Moderate inflation supports healthy economic development, but excessively high inflation can erode the value of currency. Additionally, inflation directly influences personal financial planning—if investment returns fail to outpace the inflation rate, assets may lose value. Understanding the basics of inflation is fundamental to investment and financial planning.
# Investment Strategy
2023/9/5
The full name of the FED is the Federal Reserve System, which serves as the central banking system of the United States. It was established in 1913 under the Federal Reserve Act, following the financial panic of 1907 to prevent similar crises from occurring. The Fed’s mission centers on three main goals: promoting maximum employment, stabilizing prices, and managing long-term interest rates. The first two goals are known as the "Dual Mandate." For convenience, people often refer to it simply as "the Fed." In this post, we’ll dive deeper into the Fed’s structure, including its Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), to help you gain a full understanding of how the Fed operates!
# Monetary Policy
# Inflation
# GDP
