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2026/1/26
In 2026, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will undergo key leadership changes, including a full rotation of FOMC voting members and a transition of the Chair—developments that will have significant implications for future interest rate policy. The four new rotating voting members are generally hawkish, with broad support for slowing or pausing rate cuts in order to observe subsequent developments in inflation and the labor market. In contrast, potential candidates for the next Fed Chair lean more dovish, arguing that there is still room for further rate cuts. Overall, the 2026 FOMC is expected to feature a structure in which rotating voting members are relatively hawkish, while Governors and potential Chair candidates are more dovish. While markets continue to expect the overall direction of rate cuts to remain intact, the actual pace and magnitude will depend heavily on inflation trends, labor market data, and evolving political factors.
# Macroeconomics
# USA
# Central Bank
# Federal Reserve
# Editor's Pick
2024/10/18
FedWatch is a tool developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to predict the probability of future rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve. It calculates these probabilities based on the prices of "30-day Federal Funds" futures, offering insights into market expectations. The tool provides both short-term and long-term interest rate forecasts and includes the Fed officials’ dot plot to help analyze policy direction. With these features, investors can adjust their strategies in line with market expectations, preparing for potential rate changes in advance.
# Financial Tools
# Beginners Guide
# Financial Lessons
2023/9/5
The full name of the FED is the Federal Reserve System, which serves as the central banking system of the United States. It was established in 1913 under the Federal Reserve Act, following the financial panic of 1907 to prevent similar crises from occurring. The Fed’s mission centers on three main goals: promoting maximum employment, stabilizing prices, and managing long-term interest rates. The first two goals are known as the "Dual Mandate." For convenience, people often refer to it simply as "the Fed." In this post, we’ll dive deeper into the Fed’s structure, including its Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), to help you gain a full understanding of how the Fed operates!
# Monetary Policy
# Inflation
# Employment
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) serves as the central decision-making body of the Federal Reserve System. Members' stances (such as hawkish or dovish) can vary, significantly influencing the direction of interest rates. The FOMC is composed of 12 voting members. During meetings, all regional Fed presidents participate in discussions on the overall economic situation. However, only the 12 voting members cast votes to determine the final outcome of monetary policy decisions.
# fiisual lab
In addition to influencing interest rates through monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s reports also frequently have a significant impact on the market. Common reports include the Federal Open Market Committee Statement, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), Beige Book, and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS). There are also more frequently updated reports such as the Balance Sheet (H.4.1) and the Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks (H8). These reports provide diverse insights, allowing for market interpretation from various perspectives and revealing the real thoughts of scholars, experts, and Fed officials on the economy.
The Federal Reserve sets "monetary policy" through FOMC meetings to achieve its dual mandate of stability. The well-known actions of raising and lowering interest rates are part of this process, aimed at controlling the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) using various FOMC tools. Traditionally, these tools include Open Market Operations, the Discount Window, and Required Reserve Ratios. However, additional tools have evolved over time such as Quantitative Easing (QE), Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), and the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement (ON RRP). This article will introduce each of these tools in detail, explaining their specific functions and impacts.
# Macroeconomic Data
